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So have I mentioned I’m currently participating in a $0.99 sale with a bunch of other authors? No! I didn’t! Because I’m a bad man whose life has gotten much busier than I’m used to. Anyway, here’s the deal: we’ve got 11 books, including fantasy, thriller, romance, and historical fiction, all priced at $0.99–including what will soon be the newest Kindle Single, George Berger’s Midnight’s Tale. There are some very popular books up right now–Mel Comley’s latest thriller, Monique Martin’s Out of Time (the series to which she’s just released the third book), and of course my someselling epic fantasy novel The White Tree–sequel coming out next month.

Technically speaking, this sale ends after today, but if you’re coming at this even later than I did, I’m sure several of the authors will keep their books discounted for another day or three. Give ’em a look. I said look!

The other day, I read this post by Rolando Garcia looking at trends among Amazon book reviews. He identifies several distinctive distribution patterns among reviews and noted that there may not be any books that have a majority of three-star reviews.

I don’t really have anything to add to his study. I just thought it was neat and interesting and apparently very thorough–he mentions that he looked at 4000 different books to put this together! A trainspotter after my own heart.

From here, it would be particularly cool to take a look at each different distribution pattern and try to identify what kind of book provokes that particular pattern. For instance, his example with Hugh Howey’s Wool would probably be “the fan favorite” whereas Robert Jordan’s Crossroads of Twilight would be like “the former fan favorite who has finally pushed all those fans to the breaking point.” If you had a significant enough number of reviews on one of your own books to see a clear pattern, you could compare it to the catalogue of distribution patterns and get a pretty good idea of what kind of book you wound up writing.

Which.. might just be a roundabout way of confirming something you already knew. Still. It would be interesting! I swear!

Yesterday, Taleist put out their survey of the self-publishing climate, Not a Gold Rush. The biggest news to come out of it is that self-publishing is no get-rich-quick scheme: last year, half of all self-published authors who responded to the survey made less than $500 a year. This was apparently so shocking it was worth mention in the Guardian.

My response? Yeah, no shit.

Having spent most of last year down in the ranks of #100,000 – 866,000 on Amazon, I can attest that there are a lot of people there. Like a literal million!

Let’s do some numbers. It currently takes about 1 sale/day to sustain a rank of #100,000. If you’re selling your book at $2.99 like a good old-fashioned indie, you’re making about $2 per sale. If your book sells 365 copies at $2 apiece, it’s pulling $730 per year. To sell slightly less than that, about 5 copies/week, your rank will hang out in the neighborhood of #150,000. In other words, some 850,000+ books–roughly 85% of Amazon’s listsings–potentially fall beneath that earnings threshold. (Obviously most are traditionally published works that retail for more than $2.99, but bear with me.)

If your rank’s around #500,000, you’re probably only selling about 1/month. In more other words, 50% of the books in the Kindle store are selling 20 or fewer copies per year.

Of course, we’re talking about individual books, which authors are known to produce more than one of. And I don’t know how many of the 850,000+ books that fall beneath that potential earnings threshold are self-published. But that should provide some picture of the scope we’re working with. There are a lot of books. There are a lot of authors. And most don’t sell very well at all.

And you know what? I don’t see how it’s a knock on self-publishing that half of the authors reported in the survey (which covered 1,007 participants) are making $500/year or less. Selling books is hard! It’s amazing that half are making more than $500 a year!

Then again, they probably aren’t, because the survey was self-selecting. Rather than being a truly random sampling of authors, those surveyed opted in, volunteering their information. Almost inevitably, this will skew results towards the most successful side of the environment–people who are doing well be more enthusiastic about sharing news of their success. The more successful writers are the ones most likely to be active on the forums etc. where Taleist culled their data. They’ve caught a lot of flak on this front for a small and unrepresentative sample size.

I’m inclined to be more forgiving. 1,007 authors is actually a pretty big sample. If it were random, the results would be pretty reliable. Even assuming there’s a built-in bias towards the successful side of the scale, we’re looking at results that are probably somewhere in the ballpark of accurate. Same league, anyway. Then again, the Rangers are in the same league as the Twins. That is a baseball joke.

Rather, my main issue with Not a Gold Rush is that most of its stats are correlative.

For instance, they report that “authors who get help (paid or unpaid) with story editing, copy editing, proofreading, and cover design make 34% more than the average.” But what does that mean? That’s not proof that getting help causes success. Instead, outside help correlates with–is somehow related to–success in selling books. But is that because a proofread book will generally sell more books? Or because those authors who are already successful are the ones most likely to be willing and able to hire a proofreader?

Some of these correlations don’t pass the smell test, either. According to their data, authors who tried and failed to acquire agents and traditional book contracts sell worse than those who never tried the traditional route at all. That doesn’t sound at all right to me. That’s the kind of counterintuitive stat that would have me suggesting that perhaps this survey skewed towards the proudest indies out there.

To be fair, the survey purportedly doesn’t present the data in terms of “Doing X causes a YY% increase in earnings.” But we should not rush to draw those conclusions for ourselves, either. You can see how the meaning of these stats is already getting fuzzy–“Judging by this survey of authors who are disproportionately successful to the rest of the self-publishing world, those who did this, that, and the other thing are somehow related, in ways we can’t prove, to a modest increase in royalties.”

So is the data (and the book it’s sold within) worthless? No. At the very least, it is, as others have said, an interesting historical snapshot of where the self-publishing world was at (or nearby) at the time the survey was taken. It will be particularly interesting to compare it to next year’s results, which they’re already planning to collect, and the next several years after that. Furthermore, although much of the data isn’t hard evidence of a cause and effect relationship between the choices you make as an author and the impact of those choices on your sales, it is slight evidence that doing this or that could help give your sales a boost. (I was shocked to learn that only 41% of those polled paid artists to design their covers. Either there are a lot of multi-talented authors out there, or people need to start cracking their wallets!)

Overall, however, I’d treat it with caution. The numbers might not mean what they appear to mean. They’re pretty fuzzy. Interesting, but far from conclusive. Take anything in the book with a grain of salt. Oh, and you should probably treat my perspective on it just as skeptically. After all, it’s not like I read the damn thing.

I’ve been interviewed over at the Self-Publishing Podcast today. The topic is, naturally enough, Amazon’s algorithms past and present and what they currently mean for indie authors, particularly those in Select. The guys asked some really great questions. On top of me rambling about numbers, we got into several discussions about possible strategies to start looking into in light of these new changes, including the importance of categories, pricing, how to best manage your free runs, etc.

Oh, they’re pretty funny, too. I had a great time with it. And according to themselves–always the most reliable source!–they’re the #1 iTunes podcast on self-publishing. I can see why. Go have a listen.

Earlier this month, I predicted unhappily that the recent changes to Amazon’s algorithms would mean Select authors would see fewer sales after making their books temporarily free.

Last week, I made Breakers free anyway.

I don’t really remember what I was expecting out of this run. I think I was hoping to get between 2000-6000 downloads, to sell a few dozen extra copies in the week after, and to get some personal experience with Amazon’s new system. Instead, I gave away nearly 26,000 copies of my book.

I’m going to pause for a second to say that if this makes me sound like some sort of expert at giving away books, I’m not. This was a happy confluence of circumstance. I hadn’t given away many copies of Breakers before and had only been mentioned by any of the major sites once, back in early March and late in the afternoon. When I went free this time, all the major sites listed me. And the book was almost completely fresh to their entire readership. If you want to try to duplicate that, go ahead, but trust me, “do mediocrely for three months in preparation for a gamble on a single massive free run” wasn’t exactly my strategy.

Anyway. So I thought the recent changes would be bad for free runs (and most reports indicate people are seeing a steep decline in post-free sales), but I had a suspicion that if you gave away enough copies–“enough” meaning “enough to land high on the popularity lists despite your giveaway copies being steeply discounted by the formula”–you might be able to do well anyway. And since the new lists count for 30 days instead of 3-4, if you could do well, there’s a chance you’ll do very well.

A day and a half after my free run ended, here’s Breakers:

That’s based on 173 sales and 93 borrows over that span.

I feel like I might have just buried the lede. Lead? Whatever, it’s early. Anyway, what does this mean long-term? I don’t know. I’m trying not to know just yet, because I don’t want to get my hopes up. But prior to this free run, Breakers was #121 on the Technothrillers popularity list and worse than #500 on Science Fiction > Adventure. On day three of its run, it improved to #10 Technothriller and #27 Sci-Fi > Adventure. Right now, it’s #8 and #24. I’m guessing sales will slow down after an initial rush, but hold, driven by the pop lists, at a decent clip, for an unknown length of time. If that happens, I will be a very happy Ed.

Other results: three new very nice reviews, a 5-star and two 4-stars. Also, I learned borrows report almost immediately. Possibly because borrows are completely internal to Amazon and they don’t require any payment processing. So if you have a run like this, when you revert to paid, you’re going to see a wonky ratio of incoming borrows : sales until sales reports start catching up.

I’m going to try to force the goo between my ears to not analyze this any further for the next week. By then, the trend should be more clear. Right now, I’m just going to be happy.

Since going free has been less effective lately (although…), I’m trying out some other strategies to see what happens. So right now, The White Tree is just $0.99 on Amazon (formerly $3.99). I plan to leave it there until Tuesday, 5/22, but I reserve the right to change that plan at any time. It’s my book! I do what I want!

Ahem. In brief, The White Tree is an epic fantasy novel about two young men dragged into a shadowy war and their attempts to hold onto their morality in the face of escalating chaos, violence, and lies. It’s about 150,000 words long–somewhere around 450-600 pages, depending on how you calculate things. I’m currently writing the last chapter of the sequel, The Great Rift, which will be somewhere around 180-200,000 words, depending on what I do with my revisions. In other words: big fat fantasy epics!

Anyway, buy it. Or don’t buy it. I’ll never know. But, you know. Right now, it’s kind of a bargain.

Here’s the cover:

The White Tree

Snazzy, right? Well what are you waiting for?!

Yesterday afternoon, after a lot of discussion and deliberation, I decided to make Breakers free on Amazon for another day. Today, here’s what I woke up to:

So, yeah. Guess I made the right call.

At the time, though, I wasn’t at all sure it would be the right decision. As of around 5 PM PST, I was crossing 17,000 downloads. I’d been in the Top 10 all day.

(cont. in a minute, just want to get this picture online real quick…)

So Breakers has now spent a full day free on Amazon. How’s it doing? Well, take a look:

#8 in what, you say? Well, that would be the entire free store.

I don’t know what happens next. If you’d like to help me stick there–or take a run at greater heights–please spread the news.

That’s right. The newly becovered Breakers is free on Amazon today. Please download and enjoy.

It’s not yet noon, and it’s already been downloaded 1200 times. In the time it’s taken me to type this sentence, it’s been downloaded another 6 times. Seriously. As of the end of this sentence (which took me a little longer to fix typos), it’s had 24 more downloads. What is the root of this madness?

It’s definitely not me. It’s thanks to sites that watch and mention free ebooks. Every single one is valuable, but I’d like to single out three of the largest for special mention.

The first is Michael Gallagher’s Free Kindle Books and Tips. Michael is very personable and accessible. Lately, he’s been running a series of posts on Kindleboards to help authors get their books listed on the free book sites. The first is on making sure your book has a strong description. The second is on the importance of covers. Both have a lot of sound advice from someone who runs one of the most prominent free and bargain book blogs out there. I highly recommend giving them a look.

The second site I’d like to mention is Ereader News Today. This site is extremely prominent. If you’re listed there, you can count on a successful day. I haven’t had any direct conversations with its frontman Greg, but from everything I hear, he, like Michael, is very friendly and helpful. I’ve seen him drop in on KB a few times. Whenever he does, you can be sure he’s made some author’s day. ENT offers a really diverse selection of books, too.

Lastly, Pixel of Ink. I don’t quite know what to tell you about Pixel of Ink. They’re very mysterious! And also extremely influential in getting your book in front of readers. Like the other sites, the best way to get listed with them is to have a great cover, a strong description, and equally strong reviews. If you can get mentioned by them, it will make a world of difference. I’m kind of in love with them. So, hey, POI. Are you, uh.. seeing anyone?

There are many other free book sites out there (Freebooksy, for one, looks like it’s positioned to become a success), all of which I’d recommend keeping on your radar whether you’re a reader or a writer. They’re almost uniformly run by great people who love books.

I will return with the numbers and the analyzin’ as new results come in. Oh, and in the 15 minutes it’s taken me to put this together? Over 250 more downloads.

Wow. Thanks, everyone.

First, some numbers:

12

425

668

Now, some context. That first number is the number of books I sold on Amazon this January. The second number is the number of books I sold on Amazon this February. The third number is my Amazon sales this March. Those represent paid sales–not free giveaways–about 95% of which came from two novels priced at $2.99. To put it another way, in January, I made enough to buy a cheeseburger meal at In-N-Out. In February, I made enough to cover groceries and rent. In March, I made enough to cover rent, groceries, utilities, and expenses on my car.

What changed? I mean, besides my pathetic living conditions?* (Rhetorical trick! I won’t see these checks for months, so nothing’s changed yet. The holes in my kitchen walls are still as big as the ones in my teeth.)

In February, three things changed. First, I released my third novel, Breakers. Second, I finally got a professional cover for The White Tree (and revamped its blurb, too). Third, I wound up enrolling each novel in Amazon’s Select program, a deal where you make your ebook exclusive to Amazon for 90 days (i.e. you can’t sell electronic copies anywhere else). In exchange, your books can be borrowed by Prime members (which you’re paid for), and you can make your book free for up to 5 days during that 90-day period.

The Select program is controversial. One of the major complaints is a philosophical/ethical one: authors don’t want to limit their readers to purchases through Amazon. Some see it as a predatory practice, where Amazon is attempting to further dominate ebook sales by dominating ebook content, too. Those complaints are fair enough. Definitely worth thinking about.

Other authors criticize Select for being a short-term strategy that neglects or harms your long-term sales plans. Earlier this week, Dean Wesley Smith made that very charge in an interesting post about all the ways to build your publishing/indie author business. In the post itself, Smith doesn’t address the specifics of why giving your book away/participating in Select is a narrow, short-term strategy, but elsewhere, I’ve seen it boil down to two major criticisms: a) a giveaway may result in a short-term burst of sales next week, but that won’t help you sell any copies next month or next year, and b) making your work exclusive to Amazon denies you sales and growth on every other ebook market on the planet.

I can’t argue with b). It is literally and undeniably true that if you make your books available exclusively on Amazon, you will not be able to sell them through Barnes & Noble, the Apple store, Sony, Kobo, etc. That’s a perfectly valid point.

But what about a)? Are free giveaways nothing more than a short-term boost to sales that will fade away within days, leaving you with a couple hundred extra bucks, maybe, but nothing in the way of additional readers, fans, and ongoing sales presence?

Phoenix Sullivan looks at that question here. It’s a post well worth reading. In it, she questions the definition of “long-term” in “long-term sales.” Instead, she looks at specific goals. Say you want to sell 50,000 copies of a book, she says. In her words, “If I can make inroads into that number faster by using ‘free’ [giveaways], how is that not a good thing for business?”

It’s not a rhetorical question. It’s a very pointed one. She’s got other questions, too, as well as some nifty graphs indicating free book giveaways may have actually helped her achieve and sustain steady sales over the course of months.

To return to my numbers–12, 425, 668–it would be stupid for me to claim these are all the result of signing up with Select and flinging my books at anyone who cares to click a download. Breakers was selling a few copies before I ever made it free. The White Tree saw an uptick as soon as I upgraded its appearance. My February numbers would have been larger than 12 if I never made any of my books free.

But I did make them free. Weeks after I’ve last done so, they continue to sell more in a day than they had been in a week. If you give away thousands of books, some fraction of those will be read by real people. Some fraction of those real people will turn into real fans. Even with my modest numbers, I’m seeing this already. I can hardly give away The Roar of the Spheres–seriously–but it sold more copies in March than it did in the 8 or 9 months prior to that. Combined. One of its top results for “Customers Who Bought This Item Also Bought” is Breakers. Making one book free caused people to buy one of my other books.

Meanwhile, the money I’m about to start seeing in my bank account is going to allow me to cut back on the freelance work I do. The less time I spend freelancing, the more time I spend writing more novels. (Like the sequel to The White Tree, which I think I have a title for: The Great Rift.)

So I have more readers. I have more fans. Long after I made a book free, more people are buying it than they were before. I have more resources to devote to writing new projects. Oh yeah–and I finally have some proof and confidence this might be a viable career for me.

Select’s still a new program, and it’s not without its faults. I don’t imagine I can continue to give away a few thousand books in exchange for a few hundred sales whenever I please forever and ever. Even if it continues to work like gangbusters for me, I think I will eventually want to start making some or all of my books available in other markets. Diversifying your revenue streams just makes too much sense to rule out for eternity.

But I’m not sure what makes Select or free giveaways a short-term, illusory strategy. Right now, it’s the driving force behind this phase of my long-term plans. A force that is beginning to build my career in a very real way. If Amazon cancels the program tomorrow, that won’t cancel the money I’ve made–or the readers who came with it.

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